Russia is pumping more crude oil onto global markets than it has in years. The problem: it’s getting paid less for it than at any point since March.

Seaborne crude exports hit 3.89 million barrels per day by late June 2026, the highest level since 2022. But weekly shipment revenues dropped to roughly $1.72 billion, a sharp decline from the windfall Moscow enjoyed earlier this year.

Why Russia is exporting more oil than it can afford to

The export surge isn’t really a choice. Ukrainian drone strikes have systematically targeted Russia’s domestic refining infrastructure, reducing the country’s ability to process crude at home. Less refining capacity means more raw crude available for shipment abroad.

The International Energy Agency pegged Russia’s total oil output at somewhere between 8.8 and 9 million barrels per day in 2026. Average seaborne crude exports have oscillated between 3.64 and 3.89 million bpd during the periods leading up to June, meaning the latest figure represents the upper bound of what Russia has been shipping out.

The March boom makes June look even worse

To understand how dramatic this revenue decline is, rewind to March 2026. Russian crude export revenues surged to approximately $19 billion that month, nearly double February’s roughly $9.5 billion. The catalyst was geopolitical chaos: escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran sent oil prices sharply higher, and Russia rode that wave.

At $1.72 billion in weekly crude export revenue, Russia is on pace for roughly $6.9 billion per month. That’s a far cry from March’s $19 billion haul.

Russia is shipping roughly 7% more crude than its recent average but earning significantly less per barrel.

What this means for energy markets and investors

There’s also a supply chain dimension. The sustained high volume of Russian crude exports, much of it flowing through shadow fleet tankers and non-Western trade routes, continues to reshape global oil logistics. Buyers in India and China have become the primary consumers of discounted Russian barrels, and the current price environment only makes those barrels more attractive to cost-sensitive refiners in Asia.

The question now is whether falling revenues will eventually force Moscow to reconsider its export-heavy approach, or whether the refinery damage from ongoing Ukrainian strikes will keep crude flowing outward regardless of price.