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Russia has proposed to manage Iran’s enriched uranium, complicating U.S.-Iran talks. The market for the U.S. obtaining Iranian uranium by May 31 sits at
Russia’s offer gives Iran an alternative to surrendering its uranium directly to the U.S. The market reflects this with a 3.5-point increase over the last 24 hours. With 46 days until resolution, traders show modest confidence in a U.S. acquisition, now that Russia has inserted itself as a potential intermediary.
The Iran uranium surrender market tells a more complicated story. Odds for a surrender by April 30 are at 29.3% YES, a sharp jump from 18% a day ago. But Russia’s involvement gives Iran a reason to resist surrendering its stockpile outright, which may make these odds too high. The December 31 market, at 55% YES, suggests traders expect any deal to take months longer.
In the uranium enrichment agreement market, odds for an agreement by April 30 have jumped to 39.2% YES from 21% yesterday. Russia’s offer would let Iran keep its enrichment rights, which works against a quick resolution. The odds reflect skepticism about Iran agreeing to end enrichment soon.
Daily volume is $39,190 across the U.S. uranium acquisition market, with $18,577 needed to move it 5 points, a reasonably liquid environment. The largest recent move was a 2-point spike, suggesting traders are cautious.
Russia’s proposal positions Moscow as a potential mediator and directly complicates U.S. efforts to curtail Iran’s nuclear program. At 22¢, a YES share for U.S. uranium acquisition pays $1 if resolved, a
Watch for any official Iranian response to Russia’s proposal or announcements from the Kremlin. Either could move these markets sharply.
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