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Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of breaching the Orthodox Easter ceasefire with drone and shelling attacks. The odds of a formal ceasefire by June 30 sit at
Market reaction
The market dropped 5 points at 11:35 AM as traders priced in the failed truce. With 81 days remaining until June 30, the contract is near its floor. Volume is $48,061 in daily USDC traded, with $4,972 needed to move the market 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity.
Why it matters
The accusations came during what was supposed to be a 32-hour truce. Last year’s Easter ceasefire also collapsed, and this repeat makes the same pattern clear: temporary truces don’t hold. Traders are pricing a formal ceasefire lower as mutual hostilities continue through even symbolic pauses.
Broader market effects
The failed truce also weighs on odds of a Trump-Putin meeting. An unstable diplomatic environment makes a meeting in Belarus less likely. Without progress on the ground, those odds have little reason to move up.
What to watch
Any shift in US State Department rhetoric or new sanctions could push ceasefire odds further down. Surprise diplomatic announcements from either side would be the main catalyst for upward movement.
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