Continued high-intensity combat and stalled diplomacy in Ukraine suggest a ceasefire by June 30, 2026, is increasingly unlikely. The odds for a ceasefire by April 30, 2026, have dropped to 1% YES, down from 2% a week ago.

Russian advances and Ukrainian counterattacks have pushed ceasefire markets lower. The April 30 ceasefire market is flat at 1%, and traders are treating the ongoing offensives as a clear bearish signal for any near-term agreement.

The June 30 market sits at 8% YES, a slight uptick from a week ago but still deeply skeptical. The spread between April and June tells the story: traders see almost no chance of resolution in the next ten days, with only a marginal increase in probability over the following two months.

Volume in these markets is thin. The April 30 market traded $995 in USDC, showing limited interest. The June 30 market is at $3,672 daily, more active but still low liquidity.

At 1¢, a YES share for an April ceasefire offers a 100x return, but few traders are buying. For the June market, a YES share at 8¢ suggests some traders are still positioned for a possible shift.

The things to watch: an unexpected joint announcement from Putin and Zelenskyy, or mediation efforts from the U.S. or China. Without either, ceasefire odds will likely stay where they are.

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