Scotland’s World Cup campaign is hanging by a thread after Brazil dismantled them 3-0 at Miami Stadium on June 24, leaving the Scots staring at a familiar nightmare: another group-stage exit.

Vinícius Júnior scored twice, Matheus Cunha added a third, and Scotland finished third in Group C with three points, one win, and two losses, and now face the most excruciating wait in tournament football: hoping other results go their way.

How the match unfolded

The result meant Brazil finished atop Group C. Morocco slotted in behind them in second place. Scotland, sitting third, got the consolation prize of uncertainty.

Manager Steve Clarke was blunt in his post-match assessment. He told reporters the team is “probably going home” after the defeat.

The math Scotland needs to survive

The tournament now features 48 teams split into 12 groups of four. The top two from each group advance automatically, and then the eight best third-place finishers also squeeze through to the knockout rounds.

With three points from their group-stage campaign, Scotland’s fate depends entirely on results elsewhere. Their probability of advancing sits at roughly 49%.

The final confirmation of whether Scotland advances or books flights home is expected around June 28, once all group-stage matches have been completed.

That minus-three goal difference from the Brazil hammering is not helping their case.

Scotland’s World Cup history: a pattern of heartbreak

Scotland has never advanced beyond the group stages of a World Cup. Clarke’s squad earned their three points with a win earlier in the group stage, marking their first win in World Cup group play since 1998. This match against Brazil was also the first competitive encounter between the two teams since 1990.