Senate chair urges Trump to resume Iran strikes, complicating diplomacy

The Senate Armed Services chair has called for Trump to resume military strikes on Iran, pushing the market for a diplomatic meeting by April 30 down to 2.1% YES. That number is stable over the past day but has collapsed from 22% a week ago.

Market reaction

The likelihood of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief is at 14% YES, unchanged over 24 hours but down sharply from 62% last week. Traders are pricing in more hawkish US actions, which work against diplomatic resolutions. Separately, the dropped DOJ probe into Fed Chair Powell might ease Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Fed Chair, though this market lacks current odds data. Its effect is positive but marginal compared to the Iran situation.

Why it matters

The call for resumed strikes signals a potential hardening of US policy toward Iran, which complicates any diplomatic path. At 2¢, a YES share for a diplomatic meeting by April 30 offers a 50x return if it resolves YES, but the political trajectory is moving in the opposite direction.

What to watch

The diplomatic meeting market is extremely thin: only $613 in USDC traded daily, and just $972 is needed to shift the price by 5 percentage points. Even minor developments or rumors could cause large moves. Watch for statements from Trump and key Senate figures. Any shift toward diplomacy would be a sharp deviation from today’s stance and would move these markets fast.

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