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Senate Democrats have raised concerns with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over cuts to civilian harm mitigation offices while U.S. strikes in Iran continue. On Polymarket, the contract for Trump’s end of military operations against Iran has seen a 15% drop in odds for an announcement by March 1st.
Market reaction
Cutting civilian harm offices signals continuation of military operations, not a drawdown. Traders on the Trump’s end of military operations against Iran market are pricing in a prolonged conflict, with odds for a March 1st announcement falling sharply. The budgetary move points toward sustained engagement rather than resolution.
Why it matters
Reduced civilian oversight and the increased risk of targeting errors could escalate tensions, making an end to operations less likely in the near term. A YES share on this market faces diminished returns absent a major shift in U.S. policy or a diplomatic breakthrough.
What to watch
Traders should monitor further statements from Hegseth or the Pentagon that might clarify U.S. military objectives in Iran. Shifts in congressional sentiment or international diplomatic efforts could also move market expectations.
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