Two teams with nothing left to play for except pride will meet at BMO Field in Toronto on June 26, and the crypto prediction market has already made up its mind about who walks away with the win.

Senegal takes on Iraq in a Group I match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with kickoff set for 19:00 UTC. Both squads are mathematically eliminated from advancing to the knockout stage, but that hasn’t stopped traders on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi from pouring money into the outcome.

What the prediction markets are saying

Senegal enters the match as a heavy favorite. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the Lions of Teranga sit at approximately 75.5-79% implied probability of winning the match.

Iraq, meanwhile, is priced at just 8-8.5% on those same platforms. A draw comes in around 14-16.5%.

Crypto’s growing footprint at the World Cup

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is the first edition held across the US, Canada, and Mexico under the expanded 48-team format. It’s also shaping up to be the most crypto-integrated major sporting event to date.

Kraken has signed on as the Official Crypto Exchange Supporter of the tournament, giving the exchange prominent visibility across one of the most-watched events on the planet.

The Kraken deal has helped catalyze broader trading activity in assets loosely tied to the World Cup. Fan tokens, particularly those traded on the Chiliz platform, have seen a surge in activity during the tournament.

Neither Senegal nor Iraq has an official fan token in the current crypto ecosystem. That absence is notable. It means the speculative energy around this particular match is concentrated almost entirely in prediction markets and outcome-based trading rather than team-specific collectible assets.

For context, fan tokens for clubs like Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain, and other major football organizations have existed for years on Chiliz’s Socios platform.

What this means for crypto traders

Prediction markets have emerged as one of crypto’s genuine use cases, and major sporting events are the proving ground. Polymarket’s growth over the past year has been driven largely by political and sports betting, and the World Cup is pouring fuel on that fire.