Ships cross Strait of Hormuz as US-Iran ceasefire holds despite tensions

Two ships have crossed the Strait of Hormuz following a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran. The ceasefire by April 15 market sits at 100.0% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.

The surge tracks the first concrete signs of de-escalation at the strait. All active sub-markets have converged on a ceasefire, with April 15, April 30, and June 30 all at 100%. The May 31 contract is at 99.9% YES.

Actual USDC traded volume hit $5.18M in the past 24 hours. The largest price move was a 24-point spike at 10:34 PM, jumping from 67% to 90%. The market requires over $1.3M to move the price 5 points, which points to strong institutional activity.

The ceasefire remains fragile. Disagreements over nuclear enrichment, sanctions, and regional power dynamics are unresolved. The source tier 3 report describes the current peace as driven more by strategic necessity than genuine diplomatic progress. At 22¢, a YES share for April 15 would have paid $1, a 4.5x return, a price that reflected traders’ early skepticism now fully reversed. For these odds to hold, both sides need to maintain restraint; the underlying disputes don’t need resolution, just containment.

Watch for shifts in rhetoric from Secretary of State Rubio or CENTCOM, which would signal whether this ceasefire has staying power. Reports of intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar would be the next meaningful indicator.

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