Sergey Shoigu warned Finland and the Baltic states against allowing Ukraine to use their airspace for attacks on Russia. The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 market sits at 5.9% YES, down from 6% yesterday.
Traders responded to Shoigu’s warning by trimming ceasefire odds, with 45 days left on the contract. The US withdrawal from NATO market ticked up to 1.2% YES from 1% twenty-four hours ago, as the warning feeds into questions about NATO cohesion.
The ceasefire market traded $31,876 in face value over the past 24 hours, with $1,928 in actual USDC traded. Order book depth is $3,308 to move the price 5 points. The US withdrawal market saw $126,460 in face value and $1,537 in actual USDC, requiring $3,948 to shift odds by 5 points. Both markets have moderate liquidity, meaning a single large order could move prices noticeably.
At 6¢ per YES share, a ceasefire bet pays 16.9x if a ceasefire is announced by May 31. Without concrete diplomatic talks or de-escalation signals, that outcome looks unlikely within the timeframe.
Watch for responses from Baltic and Finnish governments to Shoigu’s warnings, and any NATO moves on airspace security. Either could shift these markets quickly.
