SK Hynix HBM demand to outstrip capacity, impacting Nvidia supply chain

SK Hynix announced that HBM demand will surpass its manufacturing capacity for the next three years. NVIDIA as the largest company by market cap on June 30 is at 90.5% YES, up slightly from 90% yesterday.

Market reaction

SK Hynix’s capacity shortfall is directly relevant to NVIDIA, which buys HBM chips for its GPUs. The June 30 market holds at 90.5% YES with 68 days until resolution. The December 31 market sits at just 0.8% YES, showing traders expect NVIDIA to hold the top spot through June but not necessarily through year-end.

Why it matters

Three years of demand exceeding capacity at the world’s largest HBM producer means sustained pricing power and guaranteed order flow for NVIDIA’s data center GPU business. The gap between the June 30 market (90.5%) and the December 31 market (0.8%) is the clearest signal: traders are confident in NVIDIA’s near-term position but far less certain about the second half of the year. Order book depth on the June 30 market is $48,666 to move the price 5 points, indicating thick liquidity.

What to watch

NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings and any new product announcements are the most likely catalysts. Comments from Jensen Huang on demand trends could shift sentiment. Geopolitical developments affecting semiconductor supply chains are also worth monitoring, particularly anything involving South Korea or Taiwan.

Buying YES at 90.5¢ pays $1 on resolution, a 1.10x return. For this bet to lose, you’d need a major disruption to NVIDIA’s supply chain or a competitor closing the gap in data center GPUs within two months.

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