SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker $SPCX on June 12, 2026, raising $75 billion by selling roughly 555.6 million shares at $135 each. That puts the company’s valuation at approximately $1.77 trillion, making it the most ambitious public offering in corporate history.

And Dan Niles, the veteran tech investor who has built a reputation for calling out overheated valuations, is already waving the caution flag.

During a live stream covering the IPO, Niles laid out his case for why SpaceX’s market debut carries serious risks for investors who buy in at these levels. His core argument: a company trading at 90 to 95 times trailing revenue, with decelerating growth and billions in operating losses, is priced for a future that may not arrive on schedule.

The numbers behind the hype

SpaceX generated approximately $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025. It also posted operating losses of around $4.2 billion. So investors are paying a nearly $1.8 trillion price tag for a business that is, by traditional metrics, still losing significant money.

Niles pointed to another concerning trend: growth deceleration. SpaceX’s year-over-year revenue growth dropped from 35% in 2024 to just 15% in recent quarters.

The bull case, which Niles acknowledged, rests on a total addressable market he pegged at $28.5 trillion, driven largely by AI infrastructure and global connectivity. But capturing a meaningful slice of that TAM would require substantial strategic pivots and enormous capital expenditures that could pressure the balance sheet for years to come.

Early trading and the index inclusion catalyst

SpaceX shares surged 20-30% in initial trading, pushing the stock price to between $150 and $176 shortly after listing.

Niles expects near-term strength to continue due to index inclusions. SpaceX is likely to be added to the Russell indices and potentially the Nasdaq-100 within weeks of its IPO. When that happens, every index fund and ETF tracking those benchmarks will be forced to buy shares, creating a wave of mechanical demand regardless of whether anyone thinks the valuation makes sense.

Niles specifically cautioned about indexing risks. The forced buying creates a short-term tailwind, but it can also mask underlying liquidity pressures. Once the index inclusion bump fades, the stock has to stand on its own fundamentals. At $4.2 billion in operating losses with decelerating growth, those fundamentals face real scrutiny.

The IPO’s timing coincided with peak investor enthusiasm for AI and technology-driven growth stories. A broader wave of significant IPOs is expected in the near term, which Niles suggested could put additional strain on market liquidity as capital gets spread across multiple new listings.

Crypto’s parallel play on SpaceX

Throughout 2025, well before SpaceX went public, a range of crypto-based products tied to SpaceX equity emerged on platforms including HashKey and BNB Chain. These included tokenized assets and perpetual futures trading under various $SPCX labels, allowing retail investors who couldn’t participate in private rounds to gain exposure through these tokenized products.

What this means for investors

Niles’ framework distinguishes between the company and the stock. He’s not arguing SpaceX is a bad company. He’s arguing it’s a potentially dangerous stock at these levels.

The key variables to watch in coming quarters: Can SpaceX re-accelerate revenue growth, or does the 15% trend continue downward? How quickly do capital expenditures ramp, and what does that mean for the path to profitability? And once index inclusion buying subsides, will there be enough organic demand to support a $1.77 trillion valuation for a company posting $4.2 billion in annual operating losses?

Niles summed up his position with characteristic bluntness: the short-term setup is favorable thanks to index mechanics and retail enthusiasm, but long-term valuation challenges are real and material.