Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel has laid out a scenario where the S&P 500 hits 9,000, and the catalyst isn’t another Fed pivot or earnings beat. It’s Elon Musk’s rocket company going public.

The investment bank assigns a 30% probability to that bullish outcome, driven by an AI-fueled market expansion that SpaceX’s IPO would supposedly accelerate. The base case is more modest: a year-end 2026 target of 7,750 for the S&P 500.

The biggest IPO ever, by a wide margin

SpaceX is set to price its shares at $135 on June 12, 2026. The offering is expected to raise $75 billion, giving the company a post-IPO market cap of roughly $1.77 trillion.

Projections from both Evercore and Goldman Sachs suggest SpaceX could generate total revenue exceeding $1 trillion by 2031, with AI-related developments driving the majority of that growth. Capital expenditures are forecast to surpass $360 billion by 2030.

The S&P 500 catch, and why it matters

Even if SpaceX pulls off the largest public offering in market history, it won’t immediately join the S&P 500. S&P Dow Jones Indices requires companies to demonstrate positive net income before they’re eligible for inclusion. SpaceX isn’t expected to hit profitability until 2027, meaning at least a year of post-IPO limbo before it could even be considered for the index.

Emanuel’s 9,000 target isn’t predicated on SpaceX directly moving the S&P 500 through index inclusion. Instead, it’s about the sentiment effect. A $75 billion IPO validates the AI growth story and pulls capital into adjacent sectors.

What this means for investors

The 30% probability Emanuel assigns to the 9,000 scenario means Evercore’s own strategist thinks there’s a 70% chance it doesn’t happen. The base case of 7,750 still represents meaningful upside from current levels.

SpaceX not hitting positive net income until 2027 means the stock could trade on pure growth expectations for its first year as a public company. The gap between the base case of 7,750 and the bull case of 9,000 is roughly 16%.