Spain has reopened its embassy in Tehran after the recent US-Iran ceasefire, and the Polymarket ceasefire-by-April-15 contract sits at 100% YES.

The odds for a ceasefire by April 30, May 31, June 30, and December 31 also sit at 100% YES. The term structure is flat across all dates, with no spread between near and far contracts, which means traders see no realistic path to ceasefire collapse at any horizon.

Market volume is at zero. Every sub-market is priced at absolute certainty, so there is no edge to trade. Thin order books remain, though, so any significant news could move prices quickly if a seller appears.

Spain’s embassy reopening is consistent with the broader diplomatic picture, but unresolved issues persist. Nuclear program negotiations remain incomplete, and proxy conflicts in Lebanon are ongoing. A YES share at current levels pays nothing, but an unexpected escalatory event could reprice these contracts fast.

Indirect talks in Islamabad are scheduled for April 22. Any shift in rhetoric or concrete outcomes from those talks would be the most likely catalyst for movement in these markets.

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