Starmer, Trump agree on ceasefire, reopen Strait of Hormuz

Starmer and Trump have agreed on a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The “US x Iran ceasefire by April 15” market is now at 100% YES, up from 18% a week ago.

April 15 has reached certainty, with April 30, May 31, and June 30 all at 100% YES. There is no pricing differential across the term structure, which means the market treats the ceasefire as durable rather than temporary.

Face value and actual USDC traded diverge in liquidity terms. The April 15 market has $868,743/day in face value and is where most trading activity sits. Actual dollars traded across all markets in the last 24 hours: $3,232,549.

The ceasefire is fragile. It depends on Iran’s cooperation and the resolution of broader regional tensions. At 100% YES, the market prices in short-term stability, but any renewed aggression or breakdown in terms could break that consensus quickly.

Watch the April 10 Islamabad talks. Any shift in rhetoric or terms could move the market. Secretary of State Rubio and IRGC leadership are the key figures whose statements are most likely to affect sentiment.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.