The Strait of Hormuz remains closed while Trump considers Iran’s offer. Crude oil hitting an all-time high by April 30 sits at 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday, while WTI crude hitting $160 in April is at 15% YES.

Market reaction

The Crude Oil All Time High by April 30 market has drifted lower, with just 6 days left and limited belief in a price spike without a major geopolitical trigger. WTI Crude Oil Prices in April 2026 holds at 15% YES across different price points, suggesting traders expect continued tension but not a dramatic surge.

The Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market puts the chance of the blockade being lifted by May 31 at 68%, down from 72% yesterday. That drop shows traders growing less confident in a quick resolution after the latest negotiations.

Why it matters

Liquidity in these markets is thin. The Crude Oil All Time High market has $2,513 in daily USDC volume, with just $695 needed to shift the price by 5 points. The WTI market is similarly constrained: $506 in USDC volume and $1,632 to move 5 points, making both markets susceptible to swings from a single large trade.

Trump’s indecision on Iran’s offer keeps the situation unresolved. At 15¢, a YES share in the WTI market pays $1 if crude hits $160, a 6.67x return. That bet only makes sense if you expect a drastic supply shock within days. The CBS World report, a tier-2 source, suggests neither side is ready to concede.

What to watch

Any announcements from Trump or intermediaries like Pakistan could shift the blockade status or signal changes in US-Iran relations. A White House statement or a significant OPEC+ move would be the most likely catalysts.

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