Earn with Nexo
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased concerns about prolonged supply disruption, putting downward pressure on the Polymarket contract for crude oil reaching $90 by June 30.
Market reaction
The strait’s reopening points to de-escalation in the US-Iran-Israel conflict, which had previously pushed oil prices above $90 per barrel. The market forecasting crude oil at $90 by June 30 now faces downward pressure as traders reassess the risk of extended disruption. Activity had spiked during the initial closure but is cooling as the supply threat recedes.
Why it matters
The situation remains volatile. President Trump has claimed a comprehensive peace deal is possible, which complicates price predictions. If the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon holds, the probability of a sharp oil price spike drops further. But any breakdown in negotiations or new hostilities could push odds back up quickly.
What to watch
Actual USDC volume on this market sits at $0, meaning traders are watching but haven’t committed capital to new positions. The thin order book means even modest trades could move the price sharply, leaving the contract exposed to sudden swings from real-world events.
The reopening is a positive signal, but the situation is fragile. Traders should monitor statements from the EIA and Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister for any indication of production or inventory changes that could shift sentiment. OPEC+ meeting outcomes and US government statements on the conflict are the most likely near-term catalysts.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.