Strait of Hormuz reopens under Iranian control after Pakistan-brokered ceasefire

The Strait of Hormuz has reopened under Iranian control following a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire, and the Polymarket contract on traffic normalization by April 30 sits at 15% YES.

Market reaction

The reopening shifted conditions from full blockade to monitored transit under Iranian management. The April 30 market has moved upward, though the Trump’s Military Operations in Iran market shows a slight decrease in YES odds, consistent with the continued US military presence and the absence of a comprehensive peace deal.

The Strait of Hormuz market has no recorded 24-hour volume, which points to limited trader engagement. Activity could pick up as shipping insurers and economists price in the logistics risks of Iranian-managed transit. For now, traders appear to be waiting for concrete signs that normal shipping has actually resumed.

Why it matters

A YES share at 15¢ pays $1 if traffic returns to normal by April 30, a 6.67x return. The bet depends on the ceasefire holding and shipping companies resuming regular operations. The market’s skepticism reflects the IRGC’s continued role in managing strait access.

What to watch

Announcements from Maersk or Hapag-Lloyd on service resumptions would be the clearest signal. Any changes to the IRGC’s toll and permit regime could also move this contract sharply before month’s end.

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