Ongoing restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz have not moved Polymarket’s oil price contracts. WTI Crude Oil reaching $160 in April sits at 0.4% YES.

The WTI Crude Oil $160 market is flat despite the geopolitical situation. Odds for WTI hitting $160 hold at 0.4% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago. Traders are skeptical about a dramatic price surge even as the Strait’s restrictions reduce global oil flow by 70%. The Crude Oil All-Time High by April 30 contract shows 1% YES, down from 2% a day ago.

Trading volume tells its own story. Face value trades hit $54,256 daily, but actual USDC spent is just $506. It takes only $1,632 to move the WTI Crude Oil market by 5 percentage points, making it vulnerable to large trades. The Crude Oil All-Time High market has similar thin conditions: $2,513 in actual USDC traded and a $695 cost to shift odds by 5 points.

The key question for traders is whether these restrictions escalate into a full blockade. Current odds suggest traders are not pricing in immediate drastic price changes. At 0.4%, a YES share on WTI hitting $160 would yield a 250x return. For that bet to pay off, you’d need a significant escalation in the coming days.

Watch for OPEC+ statements or military maneuvers in the Strait. A complete closure or an OPEC+ emergency cut could shift these odds sharply.

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