Strategy makes $2.5B Bitcoin purchase, largest in 16 months

Strategy announced a $2.54 billion Bitcoin purchase, its largest in over 16 months, coinciding with STRC’s ex-dividend date. In the Bitcoin All Time High by Date market, odds for a new high by June 30 sit at 3%, down from 4% yesterday.

Market reaction

The purchase has shifted several prediction markets. In the Bitcoin Price Predictions for April 2026 market, the probability of Bitcoin falling to $60,000 has decreased. The What Price Will Bitcoin Hit in April? market shows a similar move, with a dip looking less probable after the buy. The June 30 all-time high market trades at $501 daily, and moving the price 5 percentage points requires $1,805. The largest recent move was a 1-point spike, pointing to stable trading with occasional bursts.

Why it matters

Strategy’s $2.54 billion buy is the company’s largest single Bitcoin acquisition since early 2024. A purchase of this size reduces the short-term probability of a price dip by signaling that at least one major holder is willing to add at current levels rather than wait for lower prices. For traders, buying YES shares in the “dip to $60,000” market at current lower probabilities may not offer enough payoff to justify the risk. The market for a new all-time high by December 31, currently at 18% YES, could be a more attractive position if institutional buying continues.

What to watch

Follow-up purchases by Strategy or other large holders would be the most direct catalyst. Jerome Powell’s next FOMC announcement and any public statements from Michael Saylor or Larry Fink could also move these markets.

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