Tehran activates air defenses amid US-led Operation Epic Fury

Air defenses in Tehran have been activated during the US-led Operation Epic Fury, with the market on US forces entering Iran by April 30 at 99.8% YES and regime fall by June 30 at 8.5% YES.

The activation is tied to President Trump’s deadline for Iran to negotiate or face additional strikes. The US forces entering Iran by April 30 market is at 99.8% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago but up from 56% a week ago. The December 31 market is at 99.9% YES.

The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market tells a different story, at 8.5% YES, down from 12% over the past day. Traders are not betting on immediate regime collapse even with heightened military pressure.

The US forces entry markets carry $85.7M in daily actual USDC traded, showing strong conviction. The regime fall market is far thinner at $93.9K in actual USDC traded, making it susceptible to volatility from large individual trades.

Traders appear to read the Tehran air defense activation as an extension of ongoing military operations rather than a new phase of conflict. At 8.5¢, a YES share on regime fall pays $1 if the government collapses by June 30, a 11.8x return. That bet requires believing internal regime fractures are imminent.

Watch for Pentagon briefings and Iranian leadership appearances. Any shift in operational language or visibility of key Iranian figures could move these markets.

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