Tehran’s delay in confirming new talks with the US has driven a sharp selloff. “Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?” sits at 38% YES, down from 59% yesterday.

The ceasefire by April 30 market dropped 21 points to 38% as traders priced in the lack of diplomatic progress. The uranium enrichment agreement market fell even harder, from 50% to 37% YES. Tehran’s refusal to confirm participation points to hardening positions on both sides.

The ceasefire market saw $80,435 in actual USDC traded, with a $1,566 cost to move odds 5 points. The uranium enrichment market processed $34,430 in actual USDC, with the largest single move being a 4-point drop. Both markets are actively traded, but sentiment is bearish.

At 38¢, buying YES in the ceasefire market pays $1 if it resolves positively, a 2.6x return. But that requires resumed talks within 12 days, which looks unlikely given Tehran’s current posture.

Watch for any involvement from potential mediators like Oman and Qatar. Statements from Rubio or any shift in rhetoric from Tehran or Washington could move odds quickly in either direction.

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