Tehran’s Imam Khomeini Airport reopens after 57-day suspension

Tehran’s Imam Khomeini Airport has reopened for international flights after a 57-day suspension due to the US-Israel war on Iran. The market for the Iranian regime’s fall by April 30 is at 0.1% YES, while May 31 sits at 3.0% YES.

## Market reaction

The April 30 market is virtually unchanged at 0.1% YES, likely because the resolution date is days away. The May 31 market shows 3% YES, down from 5% a week ago. The spread between these two dates suggests traders expect continued stability into May.

## Volume and order book

The regime fall market has $111,584 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours. It would take $113,028 to move the May 31 market 5 points, meaning the order book is thick enough to absorb most speculative bets. The largest single price move in the last 24 hours was a 50-point spike that quickly reverted, showing the market reacts sharply to news but corrects fast.

## Why it matters

The flight resumption points to a stabilization phase that reduces the probability of the regime’s immediate collapse. The fragile ceasefire, extended by US President Donald Trump, has allowed some normalcy to return, including the reopening of airspace. At 3¢, a YES share for the May 31 market pays $1 if the regime falls, a 33.3x return. To justify that bet, you’d need to believe significant destabilizing events will occur within the next 32 days.

## What to watch

Watch for IRGC movements and any statements from Mojtaba Khamenei, as either could shift market pricing. Whether the ceasefire continues or collapses is the main variable; further extensions would likely push the odds of regime fall lower.

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