Ten IDF soldiers wounded in Lebanon clashes with Hezbollah

Ten IDF soldiers were wounded in clashes with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15 market sits at 8% YES, up from 4% yesterday.

The April 15 ceasefire market has ticked up but remains at 8%, meaning traders see almost no chance of a deal in the next few days. The April 30 and June 30 markets price in more possibility but still reflect doubt, at 31.4% and 58.5% respectively.

Combined 24-hour face value across the ceasefire markets is $364,546, though actual USDC trading volume is more modest at $53,861. The April 30 order book is thin: just $591 would shift odds by 5 points, leaving the market vulnerable to large trades. The biggest recent price move was an 11-point spike to 39% at 1:15 AM, which quickly faded.

Continued IDF casualties and active combat make a near-term ceasefire harder to reach. A YES share on the April 30 ceasefire is priced at 31¢, paying $1 if it resolves YES, a potential 3.2x return. That bet depends entirely on a diplomatic breakthrough within the next 16 days.

Watch for announcements of direct talks or third-party mediation. IDF operational updates and any shift in Hezbollah’s military posture in the next 24 hours could move these markets sharply.

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