Tether freezes $344M in USDT tied to Iran amid pressure campaign

Tether, working with OFAC, froze $344 million in USDT tied to Iran on April 23. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sit at 14%, unchanged from yesterday but down steeply from 62% a week ago.

The freeze is part of the US’s ongoing “maximum pressure” campaign and signals a hardline stance against Iran, reducing the likelihood of Trump making concessions. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian demands has stagnated at 14% YES, with recent trading activity showing limited confidence in any policy shift before the end of April.

Liquidity remains modest, with $1,944 in USDC traded daily and a shallow order book, just $119 needed to move the price by 5 points. A single large order could easily sway the market, but no such moves have materialized since a brief spike last week.

The frozen assets represent continued economic escalation, making a US policy pivot toward easing sanctions less plausible. A YES share priced at 14¢ pays 7.14x if a deal closes, a bet on a rapid diplomatic reversal with only days left in April.

Watch for statements from Trump or his administration, particularly on Truth Social or through official channels, that might indicate a softening of stance. Trump’s next moves on the Strait of Hormuz or uranium enrichment negotiations will directly affect this market.

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