SpaceX is about to go public, and the numbers are genuinely staggering. Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, is warning that roughly $2 trillion worth of SpaceX stock could become tradable within 90 days of the company’s IPO, creating what amounts to a liquidity event the market hasn’t seen before.

The company filed its S-1 registration with the SEC in mid-May, targeting a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. If that holds, it would be the largest IPO in US history, aiming to raise up to $75 billion. For context, Saudi Aramco’s 2019 listing raised about $25.6 billion. SpaceX is playing in a different weight class entirely.

The lockup problem nobody’s pricing in

Here’s the thing about IPOs this size. The stock doesn’t just appear on exchanges and sit there quietly. There’s a mechanical process that follows, and Lee is flagging it as a potential risk that markets aren’t fully digesting.

When a company goes public, insiders and early investors are typically locked into holding their shares for 90 to 180 days. Once those lockup periods expire, those shareholders are free to sell. And historically, they do.

Lee’s argument is straightforward. When $2 trillion in previously illiquid stock suddenly becomes tradable, it creates enormous supply-side pressure. Insiders who’ve been holding SpaceX shares since the company’s early venture rounds are sitting on extraordinary gains. The incentive to take some chips off the table is real.

And SpaceX isn’t the only company heading for the public markets. Lee points out that OpenAI and Anthropic are also expected to list, with combined valuations that could push total new equity supply toward $4 trillion. That figure represents roughly 5-7% of the entire S&P 500’s market capitalization.

In English: the market is about to absorb a flood of new stock equal to the size of several major economies, all within a relatively compressed timeframe.

SpaceX’s hidden Bitcoin exposure

Buried in SpaceX’s S-1 filing is a detail that caught the crypto world’s attention. The company disclosed holdings of 18,712 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $1.29 billion as of March 31. At current prices, that stash is estimated to be worth closer to $1.45 billion.

That makes SpaceX one of the larger corporate Bitcoin holders, joining the ranks of companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla that have made digital assets part of their treasury strategy. For a company primarily known for launching rockets and building satellite internet infrastructure, it’s a notable allocation.

The disclosure raises interesting questions about how SpaceX’s public listing might influence Bitcoin’s market dynamics. Investors buying SpaceX stock are, whether they realize it or not, gaining indirect exposure to nearly 19,000 BTC. That’s a non-trivial amount of Bitcoin effectively being packaged into a traditional equity wrapper.

For Bitcoin bulls, the optics are favorable. Every major corporation that discloses meaningful Bitcoin holdings normalizes the asset class a little further. For Bitcoin bears, the concern is simpler: if SpaceX ever decides to liquidate that position, 18,712 BTC hitting the market would create its own selling pressure.

What historical precedent tells us

Lee’s warning isn’t theoretical. There’s a well-documented pattern of post-IPO selling pressure during lockup expirations. Academic research on the subject consistently shows that stocks tend to underperform in the weeks surrounding lockup expiry dates, as early investors and employees rush to monetize their holdings.

The difference here is scale. Previous mega-IPOs created localized volatility in specific sectors. A wave of trillion-dollar listings happening in close succession could create broader market effects, pulling capital away from existing positions as investors rotate into shiny new names.

Lee has consistently maintained a resilient outlook for 2026 markets across both equities and crypto. His warning about IPO-driven liquidity isn’t a bearish call on the market overall. It’s more of a timing and positioning concern, suggesting investors should be aware of the mechanical selling pressures that will likely follow these listings.

What this means for investors

The most immediate risk is straightforward portfolio math. When $4 trillion in new equity supply enters the market over a matter of months, existing capital has to stretch further. Money that might have flowed into current holdings gets redirected toward new listings, creating a kind of gravitational pull that can suppress prices across the board.

For equity investors, the playbook is to watch the lockup expiration calendars carefully. The 90-day window after SpaceX’s listing will be particularly important. If insiders begin selling in volume, the ripple effects could extend well beyond SpaceX’s own stock price, especially if the selling coincides with lockup expirations from other major IPOs.

For crypto investors, the picture is more nuanced. SpaceX’s Bitcoin disclosure adds a new variable to the market. On one hand, it validates corporate Bitcoin adoption and could attract traditional finance investors who now have indirect crypto exposure through a blue-chip equity. On the other hand, any significant price weakness in SpaceX stock could prompt questions about whether the company might sell its BTC holdings to shore up its balance sheet.

The broader concern Lee is raising deserves attention regardless of what you hold. Markets function on supply and demand, and the supply side of the equation is about to change dramatically. A 5-7% increase in total equity supply relative to the S&P 500 isn’t something that gets absorbed without friction. Capital rotation, volatility spikes around lockup dates, and shifting institutional allocations are all reasonable expectations for the quarters ahead.

The smart move isn’t to panic. It’s to recognize that the market’s plumbing is about to handle an unusual volume of new stock, and position accordingly. Lee has been right often enough that when he flags a structural risk, it’s worth paying attention.