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The Polymarket contract for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits at 0% YES, with the April 30 sub-market still open and 14 days left to resolve. Traders see virtually no chance of WTI reaching that level despite ongoing US-Iran friction and Middle East supply disruption risks.
Market reaction
The 0% YES odds mean traders are pricing in near-zero probability of a $160 WTI print this month. No significant USDC volume has appeared on the contract, pointing to a lack of speculative interest at this strike price. The US-Iran negotiation over a potential ceasefire extension hasn’t moved the needle on this particular market.
Why it matters
Traders are watching Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud and Suhail Al Mazrouei for any OPEC+ production adjustments. Natasha Kaneva’s forecasts from J.P. Morgan could also shift sentiment if her team revises oil price targets. At 0¢, a YES share pays $1 if WTI hits $160, which represents a maximum possible return but reflects how unlikely the market considers this outcome.
What to watch
Upcoming OPEC+ meetings, EIA forecasts, and policy moves from figures like Trump or Khamenei could change the calculus. Any major supply disruption or production cut announcement would be the most direct catalyst for a move toward the $160 level. Without that, the contract will likely expire at zero.
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