Trump accuses New York Times of spreading fake news on Iran situation

President Trump has accused the New York Times of spreading fake news about Iran, as the likelihood of a US-Iran peace deal by April 22 sits at 15.5% YES on Polymarket.

The accusation follows a US naval blockade announced after failed talks in Islamabad. The April 30 peace deal market is at 23.5% YES, up from 17% a few days ago, meaning some traders still price in a diplomatic window. The June 30 market is at 45.5% YES, pointing to expectations of a longer timeline for any resolution.

In the Trump visit to China market, odds for an April visit are at 1.4% YES. The May 31 sub-market is at 71.5% YES and June 30 at 79.5% YES. That 70-point gap between April and May suggests traders expect a specific catalyst, likely tied to how the Iran situation develops.

The peace deal market trades at $162,603 in daily USDC volume, enough to signal real interest but thin enough that a single large trade can move prices. The largest recent swing was a 20-point drop in the June market, showing how volatile sentiment is at these levels.

Trump’s fake news accusation adds another layer of friction to an already stalled diplomatic process. At 16¢, a YES share in the April 22 peace market pays $1 if resolved, a 6.25x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe a breakthrough is coming within 9 days, which the naval blockade and collapsed Islamabad talks make hard to justify.

Watch for Trump’s next statements on Iran and the New York Times. Any further escalation or explicit threats could move market odds quickly.

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