Trump announces 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, hints at Iran deal progress

Trump declared a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and suggested a deal with Iran is close. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market is at 24.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago.

Market reaction

The April 30 sub-market doubled to 41.5% YES from 17% a week ago. The May 31 market jumped to 55%, up from 31%. The June 30 contract sits at 69% YES.

Volume hit $711,138 in USDC across these markets in the last 24 hours. The May 31 market saw the largest price move, a 10-point drop, which points to lingering skepticism even after the ceasefire news. It would take $16,312 to shift the April 22 odds by 5 points, a relatively thick order book.

Why it matters

The ceasefire announcement touches on key resolution criteria for a permanent peace deal, including nuclear commitments. But no formal agreement exists yet. At 15¢, a YES on April 22 pays $1 on resolution, a 6.67x return if a deal is confirmed within six days. That payout requires extraordinarily fast diplomatic progress.

What to watch

A formal statement from Trump or Iranian leadership, particularly any confirmation of nuclear site dismantlement or sanctions relief, would be the clearest catalyst for further movement in these contracts.

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