Trump announces Pakistan-brokered ceasefire with Iran, easing tensions

President Trump announced a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire with Iran, temporarily easing tensions. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sit at 11.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday.

The ceasefire news has cooled market fears of imminent regime collapse. The Iranian regime fall market at 11.5% YES shows increased confidence in regime stability, at least short-term. The odds ticked up from 8% to 11.5% in the past 24 hours, as traders priced in temporary calm. With 82 days until resolution, the market is relatively thin, needing $22,171 to move the price 5 percentage points.

Actual trading volume was $36,383, far from the $408,385 face value reported. This means the market is susceptible to large orders. The largest move was a minor 1-point drop at 7:52 AM. Traders are cautious, recognizing that the ceasefire’s terms are fragile and contested.

The ceasefire temporarily lowers the risk of conflict escalating to regime collapse. But the short two-week duration and differing interpretations of the terms mean this reprieve could be short-lived. At 11.5¢, buying YES offers a potential payout of 8.7x if the regime falls by June. For that to make sense, you’d need to bet on renewed conflict or significant internal instability within 82 days.

Watch Mojtaba Khamenei’s public appearances, IRGC activity, and any new developments in ceasefire talks. These could signal shifts in regime stability or further de-escalation.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.