Trump anticipates ‘great deal’ with Iran, eyes oil sanction relief

President Trump told CNBC he anticipates a “great deal” with Iran. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief by April now sits at 43% YES, up from 36% a day ago.

The Iranian Demands Trump Agreement market saw YES odds climb 7 points in the last 24 hours. Traders appear to read Trump’s statement as a possible move toward concessions on sanctions. The US-Iran Permanent Peace Deal by April 22 market ticked up slightly to 14.5% YES, though it shows little new conviction about a comprehensive settlement.

Volume in the sanction relief market is $4,106 in actual USDC traded, with only $387 required to move the price 5 percentage points. The market is thin enough that relatively small trades can cause large swings. The peace deal market is far thicker at $547,661 in daily USDC volume, making it less reactive to speculative bets.

Trump’s statement could be strategic positioning or a signal of progress in back-channel talks. At 43¢, a YES share in the sanctions relief market pays $1 if Trump agrees to relief by April, a 2.33x return. The bet comes down to whether Trump’s rhetoric leads to concrete action before the deadline.

Next signals to watch: any official White House confirmation or Iranian responses via state media. Trump’s social media posts may also hint at a formalized agreement or a shift in negotiating posture.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.