Trump brokers Lebanon-Israel truce, US maintains Hormuz blockade

Trump announced a 10-day truce between Lebanon and Israel while the US commits to maintaining a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely. The odds for the US-Iran ceasefire ending by April 21 are at 8.0% YES, down from 13% a day ago.

Market reaction

The US-Iran ceasefire market moved sharply, with April 21 ceasefire-end odds dropping to 8% from 13% in 24 hours. The Strait of Hormuz blockade market also shifted: odds of the blockade being lifted by May 31 fell to 83.0% from 86%.

Why it matters

Odds for a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sit at 2.1% YES, flat and consistent with deep skepticism about any diplomatic progress. The market’s actual USDC volume is $91/day, which suggests limited conviction behind recent moves.

What to watch

With the US maintaining economic pressure and military posture in Hormuz, the likelihood of renewed hostilities increases, particularly as talks appear stalled. A YES share in the ceasefire market at 8¢ pays $1 if it resolves by April 21, a 12.5x return. That bet only pays off if you believe imminent military escalation is likely.

Watch for Trump’s statements on social media or any Pentagon briefings about the blockade. The next key event is Vance’s Pentagon briefing scheduled for Tuesday.

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