Trump’s remark on China’s positive reaction to the Strait of Hormuz reopening has pushed Iran peace deal odds slightly higher. The probability of a US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 now sits at 29.5% YES, up from 14.5% earlier.

Market reaction

The Iran Peace Deal market is trading $267,520 in USDC daily volume. Trump’s statement points to some progress in negotiations, giving traders reason for marginal optimism. The largest recent move was a 4-point spike, a sign of volatility as the deadline approaches.

Why it matters

Trump’s insistence that the US blockade stays in place until a comprehensive deal is reached weighs on removal prospects. The odds of Trump lifting the blockade by April 19 are at 13.5% YES. The May 31 market trades at 85% YES, meaning traders expect resolution on a longer timeline.

What to watch

The peace deal market has over $1.5 million in face value daily, but $16,881 can move the market 5 points, so it remains sensitive to large trades. With only six days left for a permanent peace deal, any major announcement could cause rapid price swings. A YES share at 15¢ pays $1 if a deal resolves, a 6.67x return. For this bet to work, you’d need to believe a formal announcement is imminent.

Watch for statements from US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff or Iran’s Abbas Araghchi. Confirmation of a comprehensive deal would reprice these markets immediately.

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