Trump cites China’s positive view on Hormuz reopening amid Iran peace talks

Trump’s remark on China’s positive reaction to the Strait of Hormuz reopening has pushed Iran peace deal odds slightly higher. The probability of a US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 now sits at 29.5% YES, up from 14.5% earlier.

Market reaction

The Iran Peace Deal market is trading $267,520 in USDC daily volume. Trump’s statement points to some progress in negotiations, giving traders reason for marginal optimism. The largest recent move was a 4-point spike, a sign of volatility as the deadline approaches.

Why it matters

Trump’s insistence that the US blockade stays in place until a comprehensive deal is reached weighs on removal prospects. The odds of Trump lifting the blockade by April 19 are at 13.5% YES. The May 31 market trades at 85% YES, meaning traders expect resolution on a longer timeline.

What to watch

The peace deal market has over $1.5 million in face value daily, but $16,881 can move the market 5 points, so it remains sensitive to large trades. With only six days left for a permanent peace deal, any major announcement could cause rapid price swings. A YES share at 15¢ pays $1 if a deal resolves, a 6.67x return. For this bet to work, you’d need to believe a formal announcement is imminent.

Watch for statements from US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff or Iran’s Abbas Araghchi. Confirmation of a comprehensive deal would reprice these markets immediately.

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