U.S. President Donald Trump has claimed that Iran “shot first” in the resumed hostilities between the two countries, labeling the action a “big mistake.” This assertion comes amidst ongoing military confrontations following the collapse of a ceasefire on July 8, 2026. The escalation of conflict has seen active U.S. airstrikes on Iranian military installations and retaliatory strikes by Iran on U.S. bases in the Gulf region. Trump’s statement appears to justify increased U.S. military actions and suggests a hardening of the U.S. stance, potentially affecting diplomatic efforts toward a new agreement with Iran.

The market for a potential US-Iran deal in 2026 has reacted to Trump’s comments, with a noticeable decrease in the likelihood of a deal including Iran Reconstruction Funding. Current pricing suggests a 27.5% probability of such a funding component, down from 29% the previous day. The rhetoric from Trump appears to be influencing the market’s perception of the feasibility of a diplomatic resolution, consistent with a more confrontational approach.

In the context of the resumed war, markets appear to be interpreting these developments as reducing the chances of a comprehensive agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Observers note that any potential escalation or additional military actions could further impact the probability of a deal being struck this year.

Key Takeaways

• Trump’s assertion that Iran “shot first” appears to indicate increased U.S. military engagement.
• Market pricing for a US-Iran deal including reconstruction funding has decreased, suggesting reduced confidence in reaching an agreement.
• The conflict escalation is consistent with scenarios where diplomatic resolutions become less likely.

What to Watch

Observers will be watching for further military actions or statements from key actors, such as U.S. negotiators or Iranian officials, which could influence market perceptions. Any steps toward de-escalation or renewed diplomatic efforts might shift market pricing back toward a higher probability of a deal. Additionally, announcements from mediators like Qatar and Pakistan could indicate movements toward potential negotiations.

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