Trump claims Iran suspends nuclear program indefinitely

Trump announced Iran’s indefinite suspension of its nuclear program. The market for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 is now at 55.9% YES, up from 35% yesterday.

Odds in the Iran uranium enrichment agreement market rose quickly after the announcement. With 14 days until the deadline, any official confirmation from Iran could push this higher. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market also ticked up to 66% YES, suggesting some traders are pricing in broader de-escalation.

Daily volume on the uranium enrichment market is at $23,824 in USDC. The order book is thin: just $599 could shift the price by five points, which means sharp moves on relatively small trades. The largest movement so far was a 3-point spike at 5:48 PM, from 32% to 34%.

Trump’s statement has no corroboration from Iranian officials or the IAEA. Without independent confirmation, the claim alone doesn’t resolve the market. A YES share at 55.9¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 2.56x return. For this bet to pay off, traders need a confirmed agreement within two weeks.

Watch for statements from Iranian officials, IAEA reports, or any joint US-Iran communiques. These are the signals that will confirm or refute Trump’s claim.

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