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Trump asserts Iran’s leadership has become more moderate following a regime change. The market for the Iranian regime falling by June 30 shows 13.5% YES, down from 20% last week.
Traders doubt Trump’s statement, as reports indicate Mojtaba Khamenei, a hardliner, is consolidating power. The June 30 market reflects expectations of stability, not collapse. Odds shifted slightly in the past day, with a notable spike from 12% to 14% at 7:21 PM.
Trading volume is at $59,602 daily. It would take $195,733 to shift odds by 5 points, hinting at institutional interest. The market’s largest move was a 1-point spike, showing cautious sentiment.
The moderation claim seems unlikely. The IRGC’s actions suggest hardline policies will continue. A YES bet at 13.5% requires belief in a major destabilizing event within 88 days. With Mojtaba Khamenei in control, regime change odds are low unless significant internal or external shifts occur.
Watch for IRGC fractures, unexpected Assembly of Experts meetings, or Mojtaba Khamenei’s absence. These could impact the market. Trump’s rhetoric hasn’t significantly affected odds.
Markets Impacted
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — currently 13.5% YES
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