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Trump announced deep negotiations with Iran while claiming military victory. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 sits at
Traders are unmoved by Trump’s statement, given the lack of new information and the source’s credibility. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 remains at 100% YES, priced on the already established ceasefire. With five days left, traders treat this as a foregone conclusion. Other sub-markets like April 30 and May 31 also hold at 100% YES, pointing to a stable outlook for the ceasefire’s continuation.
The permanent peace deal market remains in flux. Trump’s claim of progress in negotiations might slightly boost the chances for a permanent peace deal by April 22, but without concrete developments, skepticism persists. A formal peace agreement requires more than rhetoric.
This news doesn’t change the probability of a formal US declaration of war on Iran by December 31. The focus on diplomacy and Trump’s assertion of military success suggest a lower likelihood of escalation. A declaration of war looks less probable, consistent with the market’s expectation for continued diplomatic efforts.
Watch for verified announcements from the ongoing talks in Pakistan, especially involving Vice President JD Vance or Iranian officials. Statements from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar could also shift market sentiment.
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