Trump claims US could destroy Iran’s infrastructure in one hour

Trump claims the U.S. could dismantle Iran’s bridges and power plants within an hour. The “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30” market is at 39% YES, down from 46% earlier today.

The statement signals a more aggressive U.S. posture, making a uranium enrichment agreement by month’s end less likely. The April 30 market, currently at 39% YES, saw a 16-point spike earlier in the session, with $516 in volume moving the price 5 points. Explore the market.

Trump’s threat is dragging down the US-Iran permanent peace deal markets. The April 22 market sits at 26% YES, while the April 30 market is at 38% YES. The largest shift was a 4-point drop as traders priced in lower odds of a swift diplomatic resolution. See the April 22 market.

Trump’s aggressive stance also affects the “Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st” market. There have been no recent trades, which suggests traders see continued operations as the more likely outcome. The lack of activity points to low confidence in any near-term resolution.

At 39¢, a YES share on the uranium enrichment agreement pays $1 if the deal goes through, a 2.56x return. That bet requires significant diplomatic progress within 15 days.

Watch for official statements from Trump, the IAEA, and Iranian leaders. Any shift toward negotiations or announcements of further military actions will move these odds.

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