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Trump has signaled confidence in Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair confirmation next week and reported potential de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 sits at
Market reaction
The Strait of Hormuz news points to a possible winding down of the conflict, decreasing the likelihood of a U.S. ground invasion. The odds for diplomatic meetings occurring by June 30 are at
Trump’s stated confidence in Warsh’s confirmation nudges those odds upward, though without concrete developments these remain aspirational rather than guaranteed shifts.
Why it matters
Daily USDC volume in the diplomatic meeting market is $1,078, with just $218 needed to move the odds 5 percentage points. That makes the market susceptible to influence by relatively small trades, something traders should factor into position sizing.
The potential opening of the Strait of Hormuz could indicate de-escalation momentum. A YES share on the U.S. invasion of Iran at current odds is a bet against significant military escalation. The Warsh confirmation market may see increased activity as the hearing date approaches, but any unexpected Senate developments could move prices quickly.
What to watch
– Official statements from the White House or Pentagon confirming any de-escalation steps – Warsh’s confirmation hearing on April 21 – Movement in the diplomatic meeting market, given its thin liquidity
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