Trump confirms US naval blockade on Iran continues

Trump confirmed the US naval blockade on Iran continues. The odds of lifting the blockade by April 19 dropped to 12.5% YES, down from 34% just a day earlier.

The April 17 market is nearly dead at 1.0% YES after Trump’s statement. The April 19 market fell to 12.5% YES from 34%. The May 31 market holds steady at 87.5% YES, meaning traders still expect the blockade to end within roughly 45 days, just not soon.

Traders read Trump’s statement as a strong signal the blockade won’t be lifted in the near term. The gap between the April 19 and May 31 contracts points to an expected resolution sometime in May at the earliest. Volume hit $33,928 in USDC over the last 24 hours. The May 31 market is thin enough that $3,730 can move it 5 points.

At 17.5¢, a YES share on the April 19 contract pays $1 if the blockade is lifted, a 5.7x return. That requires a sudden diplomatic breakthrough in the next two days.

Watch for Trump’s updates on Truth Social and any statements from the Pentagon or CENTCOM. Signs of resumed negotiations or shifts in Iranian strategy could move these contracts quickly.

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