Trump is weighing missile strikes against Iran following failed negotiations. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market sits at 100% YES, though reports of renewed military planning could undermine that confidence.

The US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 market is also at 100% YES. Trump’s hawkish posture may introduce volatility. The Iran’s military action against other countries by April 30 market sits at 100% YES, consistent with expectations of Iranian retaliation.

The collapse of talks shifts the narrative. Trump’s hardline approach makes early concessions unlikely, and the Trump’s agreement to Iranian demands in April market is under pressure as a result.

Liquidity across these markets is low, with no substantial volume moving prices. A renewed US strike could trigger trading activity in the ceasefire and military action markets. Order book depth is thin, leaving prices vulnerable to large trades.

At 100% YES, the ceasefire markets offer little return on their own. But Trump’s missile consideration is a bearish signal for peaceful resolution, and a reversal could open high-risk opportunities. If military action resumes, traders may look to short these markets.

Watch for official statements or tweets from Trump confirming strike plans. Any Pentagon announcements could move these markets quickly, making this a high-stakes week for US-Iran conflict contracts.

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