Trump questioned the UK’s stance on Iran while hinting at trade repercussions. The market for a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sits at 2.3% YES.

The UK-US rift over Iran adds a variable to Trump’s foreign policy calculations ahead of his expected China visit. The April 30 market for Trump visiting China holds at 1.0% YES, meaning traders see almost no chance of it happening that soon. The May 31 market is at 82.5% YES, pricing in a later but probable visit.

Trump’s public criticism of Starmer hasn’t moved US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds. The June 30 “no meeting” contract is flat at 2.3%. Only $404 is needed to shift these odds 5 points, so liquidity is thin enough that a single large position could move the price.

On uranium enrichment, odds that Iran agrees to end enrichment by April 30 are at 35.8% YES, up from 10% a week ago. That market has $47,383 in USDC traded, and the jump from 10% suggests traders are repricing the possibility of a deal rather than expressing high confidence in one.

Starmer’s refusal to back Trump’s approach could weaken the coercive pressure campaign on Iran and complicate the China visit timeline. A YES share at 1¢ for a Trump visit to China by April 30 pays $1, a 100x return on what the market treats as near-impossible.

Watch for White House signals on Trump’s diplomatic schedule. Xi Jinping’s response, any announced Iran meeting venues, and UK-US trade actions are the specific catalysts that could reprice these contracts.

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