Trump declares Hormuz Strait crisis over, rejects NATO assistance

Trump announced the Hormuz Strait situation is resolved, dismissing NATO’s offer for assistance. The April 19 market for lifting the blockade sits at 18% YES.

Trump’s declaration comes as Iran confirmed the strait is open, ending a seven-week blockade. The April 19 market moved from 34% to 28% in a single drop, suggesting mixed confidence in a formal announcement. The May 31 market remains stable at 87% YES, meaning traders expect a formal announcement by then even if the April deadline passes.

The order book tells a different story. Total USDC traded on the April 19 contract was $11,934, and just $227 could move the odds 5 points. A book that thin means a single large order can swing the price sharply. The largest recent move was a 6-point drop at 5:53 PM.

Trump’s statement matters, but the market resolution requires a formal announcement, not a social media post or offhand remark. A YES share at 18¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 5.5x return. To justify that bet, you need to believe a formal announcement comes within three days.

Watch for Pentagon confirmation, a White House press release, or further statements from Iranian officials. Any of these would convert today’s rhetoric into something the market can price with more certainty.

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