Trump declares Israel-Lebanon ceasefire amid ongoing US blockade on Iran

Trump declared a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon while the US blockade on Iranian ports continues. The market for the US lifting its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, sits at 82% YES.

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is a separate track and hasn’t moved the odds on the US-Iran blockade. The April 17 market is at 8% YES with just a day left to resolve. The April 19 market is at 15.0% YES.

The April 17 market is thin: only $1,085 is needed to move the price 5 points, which makes it vulnerable to manipulation. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 4-point drop at 3:18 AM, typical of the volatility in short-term markets near expiry. The May 31 market is thicker at $3,730 needed for a 5-point shift, which points to stronger conviction among traders.

The ceasefire has little bearing on the blockade. The US has not signaled any change in its naval posture, and the blockade looks likely to persist well beyond the ceasefire window. A YES share for the May 31 deadline trades at 82¢, offering a 1.22x return if resolved YES. Traders betting on a sudden diplomatic shift would need to see rapid de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict for that to pay off before the shorter deadlines.

Watch for new statements from Trump or the Pentagon on blockade status. The next key date is April 19, when any unexpected announcement could move odds sharply.

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