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Trump downplayed Iran negotiations during a Miami UFC event, claiming military victory, while the US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market shows traders pricing in a decreased likelihood of resolution.
Market reaction
Trump’s remarks didn’t directly move the odds on the US-Iran permanent peace deal, but they signal a bearish outlook. Traders are reconsidering whether a deal is feasible with only ten days remaining until the deadline. The ceasefire by April 15 odds sit at
Why it matters
The permanent peace deal market has yet to see active trading. Trump’s emphasis on military success over diplomatic progress has traders questioning whether sustained peace is realistic. The term structure suggests traders expect continued uncertainty beyond April.
What to watch
Trading volume across these markets is zero in the last 24 hours. The absence of fresh capital points to a wait-and-see posture. These markets remain thin, meaning a single large order could still move odds dramatically.
Trump’s dismissive tone toward the talks represents a real shift in the probability of resolution. A YES share only pays out if a permanent peace deal is signed and announced, which now looks less likely. Traders betting on a deal need concrete progress in negotiations in the next few days, and that currently appears improbable.
Watch for official statements from US or Iranian officials, particularly Vice President JD Vance or Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Any confirmation of resumed talks or breakthroughs would sharply reprice these contracts.
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