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President Trump claims the Iran conflict’s impact on gas prices is temporary, expecting relief when the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The odds for a ceasefire by April 7 are now 8.5% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
Traders remain skeptical. Trump’s comments didn’t shift the April 7 market significantly, but they confirm a bearish trend. The odds for an April 15 ceasefire also dropped to 18.5% from 20%. The April 30 market saw the most movement, rising 4 points to 38.5% after a morning rally.
Trading volume is strong, with $1.3M in USDC traded in the last 24 hours. The April 7 market is thin, needing only $15,138 to move it by 5 points. A 2-point drop occurred this morning, showing immediate reactions to Trump’s remarks.
For traders, Trump’s words offer little reassurance. The blockade continues, and Iran’s stance remains firm, indicating no quick resolution. The bearish trend will likely persist without diplomatic progress. A YES share at 8.5¢ for April 7 pays $1 if a ceasefire occurs — an 11.8x return, but it requires faith in rapid talks.
Watch for diplomatic moves, especially from Oman or Qatar. Also, monitor statements from Rubio or Hegseth. Any shift in rhetoric or official talks could quickly change the market.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES
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