Trump’s furious response to the downing of a US jet in Iran has dampened hopes for a swift end to military operations. The odds of Trump announcing the end of operations against Iran by March 1 sit at 0% YES. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 is at 19.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday.
Following the jet incident, advisers excluded Trump from live tactical discussions, raising doubts about the US-Iran peace process. The April 22 peace deal market sold off hard, moving from 40% to 19.5% YES in 24 hours. The April 30 market also slid to 36.5% YES, down from 61%.
The largest volume is in the April 22 sub-market, trading $610,678/day in USDC. Thin book depth means a $9,366 order can shift odds 5 points. The biggest single move was a 5-point drop at 5:56 PM. This pattern suggests traders expect little diplomatic progress over the next few days.
Trump’s exclusion from rescue operation briefings points to internal discord and possible further escalation. At 19.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if a peace deal is announced by April 22, a 5.13x return. For this bet to pay, you’d need to believe in a diplomatic breakthrough in the next four days.
Watch for any Trump statements or SECDEF Pete Hegseth’s briefings. Any indication of a strategic shift would move these odds fast.
