Trump expects imminent Iran peace talks, traders remain cautious

Kevin Hassett revealed that Trump believes peace talks with Iran are imminent. The odds for a US-Iran peace deal by April 22 sit at 16.5% YES, down from 40% just 24 hours ago.

Market reaction

Traders are cautious but not dismissive. The April 30 market is at 37.5% YES, with uncertainty around Tehran’s participation in the upcoming Islamabad talks. The May 31 odds sit higher at 58.5%, meaning traders see a greater chance of resolution by then. The biggest jump is between April 30 and May 31, suggesting expectations for a catalyst in that window.

The diplomatic meetings market shows tepid optimism, with odds for a meeting by April 30 at 13%, down from 22% in the last 24 hours. That drop tracks with skepticism about Iran’s willingness to sit down with U.S. officials, even after Trump’s statement.

Why it matters

$1.64M in USDC traded across these markets over the last 24 hours. The US-Iran peace deal market is relatively thick, requiring $9,404 to move prices by 5 points for the April 22 date. The largest price move was a 5-point drop at 5:56 PM, pointing to large trades recalibrating expectations.

What to watch

Hassett’s statement offers hope but lacks the concrete details traders need for a strong shift in sentiment. The more significant action could come if Trump’s words translate into confirmed diplomatic meetings or Iran signals a change in stance. Buying YES at 16.5¢ offers a potential 5x return, but that bet hinges on swift diplomatic progress.

Watch for Pakistan’s role as a mediator to gain traction or any direct communication confirming Iran’s participation in the talks. Either development would likely move these markets sharply.

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