Earn with Nexo
Trump has failed to secure progress in Iran negotiations, with both Iran and Israel rejecting terms. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 sit at
Negotiations in Islamabad produced no results. Iran refused US demands, and Trump hinted at further military actions. The April 15 ceasefire odds hold at 100% YES with just 5 days left before resolution. The April 30 and later dates also sit at 100% YES, meaning traders see no change in the resolution outlook.
The odds look static, but the situation underneath them is not. Trump has threatened strikes and a potential naval blockade; Iran has refused to budge. The flat odds suggest traders have already priced in these risks rather than treating them as new information.
Volume is $0 face value across all sub-markets. This likely reflects either trader uncertainty or a consensus that nothing will change within the short window before resolution dates.
For traders, 100% YES creates a contrarian setup. Any shift in rhetoric or unexpected diplomatic contact could trigger a sudden correction. If Trump’s administration softens its position, or if mediators like Oman and Qatar restart talks, the odds would move fast.
Watch for Trump’s public statements or any moves by intermediaries that signal renewed diplomacy. Direct or indirect engagement announcements from the White House or Iranian officials would be the clearest catalysts.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.