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Trump suggests Iran could accept ceasefire terms excluding nuclear conditions. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 are at 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
The April 7 market is nearly stagnant, showing doubt about quick diplomacy. The April 15 market sits at 6.5% YES, down from 8% in the last day. The April 30 market is slightly more hopeful, with odds at 17.5% YES, though down from 24% yesterday. The May 31 market shows the largest drop, now at 36.5% YES, down from 46%.
Market activity is robust, with $431,402 in USDC traded over 24 hours. The April 7 market has low depth, needing just $12,352 to shift the price 5 points. A 2-point rise in the April 30 market suggests some traders expect a mid-April development.
Trump’s mixed messages—mentioning Iran’s fear of withdrawal alongside military threats—add to the uncertainty. The credibility of Iran’s supposed concession is hard to assess. Betting on a quick ceasefire is risky. At 1.1¢, a YES share for April 7 offers a 90x return, but requires belief in a swift change within four days, which seems unlikely without clear diplomatic signs.
Watch for statements from Rubio or Hegseth, or any confirmed intermediary actions from Oman or Qatar. A shift from talk to scheduled negotiations would significantly impact the market.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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